TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…
LOCATION…13.4N 60.7W ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the French Islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Guadeloupe and Martinique * St. Lucia * Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK —————————— At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 60.7 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move through the Windward Islands during the next couple of hours, and move over the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday. Tropical Storm Matthew is expected to pass about 250 miles south of St. Kitts- Nevis. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2” are possible across St. Kitts and Nevis and winds gusting near tropical storm force are possible especially in showers and over open waters. Some of the showers later today may be accompanied by thunderstorms as well. Seas are expected to continue deteriorate and peak at 8-12ft. As TS Matthew moves through the Windward Islands this afternoon some of the feeder-bands will move over St. Kitts and Nevis and produce some showers. Some of the showers may be moderate to heavy at times accompanied by thunderstorms. We at the St. Kitts-Nevis Meteorological Services will continue to closely monitoring the progress of TS Matthew and will issue any flood advisories if they become necessary. Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands within the next few hours and continue into this evening. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
NEXT ADVISORY ————- Next intermediate advisory from NHC at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown