In March 2021, when Americans first started hearing about the Delta variant of Covid-19, breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated Angelenos only accounted for 2% of that month’s total cases. By June, when Delta accounted for 50% of all variants in Los Angeles, breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated residents had risen to 20% of all identified cases. In late July, county officials reported that the Delta variant had outperformed all others, accounting for more than 90% of all positive tests analyzed for the variants. As a result, the ratio of breakthrough cases has risen to 30%, local health officials said today.
While LA County figures for the Delta variant were not reported for August, as of August 21, Delta had risen to 98% of all tests genomically sequenced in California. According to Los Angeles Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer, a parallel growth in peak infections has yet to be reported, but it is likely significant as well.
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While continuing to profess the effectiveness of vaccines, Ferrer noted that the percentages of fully vaccinated Angelenos infected and hospitalized have also increased over the past three months.
Fully vaccinated people made up just 5% of Covid patients hospitalized in Los Angeles in April. By July, that number had risen to 13%. Overall, however, the percentages of people vaccinated testing positive, hospitalized or deceased from Covid remain low – all below 1%. Of the nearly 5.15 million people in the county fully vaccinated on Tuesday, 27,331 have tested positive. This is a rate of 0.53%. Only 742 were hospitalized, for a rate of 0.014%. Only 68 died, which makes a rate of 0.0013%.
The number of hospitalizations has been steadily increasing for over a month, but Ferrer noted today that between April and mid-August, around 25% of Covid-positive patients in Los Angeles were in fact hospitalized for a reason other than the coronavirus. Their infection was only detected during routine admission screening.
She was quick to add, however, “Let’s be clear: they definitely have Covid; we don’t inflate our suitcases.
Ferrer attributed the increase in the number of groundbreaking cases to the fact that there are now more Delta variants in circulation. “People will come into more contact with the virus,” she observed.
She also sees another factor: “We may be starting to see a bit of a decline in protection (provided by vaccines), especially in the elderly. Ferrer cited the example of early adopters Israel, which has 60% of its population fully vaccinated but appears to be seeing its protection against vaccines diminish. The country recently started a series of recalls.
“I share the concern,” Ferrer said of the increasing number of hospitalizations among those vaccinated, “but I also think the number is so much lower (than it could have been). She noted that the median age of fully vaccinated people in hospital is almost 15 years older than the median age of unvaccinated patients, an indication of increased protection among the most vulnerable.
“With these high rates of community transmission, more fully vaccinated people get post-vaccination infections. However, this same information also clearly indicates the level of protection available to fully vaccinated people, ”said Ferrer. “Most of us who are fully vaccinated are not infected. And if we get infected, we don’t end up hospitalized and it’s very unlikely that they will tragically lose their lives to Covid if they’re fully vaccinated. “