A new study released by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is predicting that the region will in 2017 leave behind half a decade of declines in the prices of their export basket and a weak increase in exported volume, achieving 10 per cent growth in the value of its shipments abroad.
ECLAC in its annual report on “International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2017” noted that the region’s imports will also recover after four years of declining values, since they are projected to grow seven per cent in 2017.
ECLAC said although there is great uncertainty in macroeconomic, technological and geopolitical arenas at an international level, various factors have contributed to the trade recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean.
It said these factors include greater dynamism in aggregate demand in some of its main trading partners; a return to economic growth in the region itself, which is expected to grow 1.2 per cent in 2017 and 2 per cent in 2018, after two years of recession; higher prices for several of its basic export products; and the dismantling of tariff and non-tariff barriers in some of its countries, the report indicates.
According to the document, the recovery in regional exports in 2017 will be led by shipments to China and the rest of Asia, estimated at (23 and 17 per cent value increase, respectively, while exports to the United States and within the region will expand at a rate near the average of nine and 10 per cent respectively.
Sales to the European Union will be less dynamic estimated at six per cent increase.
ECLAC said with regard to trade within the region, a rebound is expected in all its sub regions, especially in South America.
It said for the year as a whole, growth in the value of intraregional exports is forecast at 10 per cent. Their weight as a percentage of the region’s total shipments abroad is seen at 16.8 per cent below the maximum level of nearly 22 per cent reached in 1994, the report states.